RELAX, TODAY’S SHAPESHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE INVOLVES PLENTY OF UPSIDES AND OPPORTUNITIES RARELY MENTIONED IN A PUBLIC DEBATE STRONGLY TAINTED BY A NEGATIVITY BIAS

Seeking geopolitical or geoeconomic analysis that validates the pessimistic tribal mindset of, say, Team Trump or Team Biden? As well as validates one of the us-versus-them narratives that, per definition, accompany all varieties of tribal groupthink? Then there are many other geopolitical strategists much better suited to your needs. However, if seeking geopolitical analysis that proactively, steadfastly and authentically rises above tribal groupthink then you are in the right place. Sure, just about everyone claims to be non-tribal but Mark Brolin offers the real thing. As a direct consequence his geopolitical outlook is a lot more optimistic than today’s public discourse bent on finding faults with whatever the “enemy” is saying or doing. So only a non-tribal approach allows a dedicated and consistent focus not only on today’s problems and risks but also on today’s massive opportunities.

How many of us would, if the choice was possible to make, decide to return to live in a previous decade? Precisely. Very few. Since, if really thinking about it, we live in the best era ever in just about every aspect that really counts. Yet many public discourse stakeholders rarely stop complaining. Why? Because on the field of practical reality it is typically by whipping up fear and alarmism that: 1) Politicians can scare voters into avoiding their opponents 2) Academics, management consultants and other providers of intellectual alibis can secure budgets/contracts 3) Vested interests (lobbyists) manage to push through for them favourable legislation and 4) Journalists make us frail human consumers click on juicy, entertaining and often hopelessly simplistic hero-versus-villain stories. The downsides of all the scaremongering? Tribalism and a collective anxiety level that in a major way betray not least typically authentically truth seeking young generations. 

Basing decisions on fear really never is a good way forward either for organisations or individuals. Yet negativity bias must be expected to be frantic throughout 2024. Why? Not least while a major election year. The temperature always rises – and so do tempers – during election years when plenty is at stake. Usually without any hint of self-irony a classic battle cry will often be repeated in far too many political tribes. Including in rival tribes such as both Tribe Trump and Tribe Biden. What is the battle cry? “Society has never been so divided and this is all due to the faults of our rivals. The world as we know it will end unless more power and money is sent, him, our way. You must do what you can to trip up our devious opponents, the end justifies the means.” The easiest (laziest) way to command respect within each such tribe of negativity often bordering on hatred? Simply nod gravely and sagely when the hero versus villain scare stories are repeated again and again – and again. 

So, should we bang our heads against the wall in despair since, so far, it has always tended to be the way of the world that public discourse has been characterised by tribal negativity bias? Including all that it entails such as moralism, spite and a general dislike for thy neighbour if thinking differently than you? Luckily no. Most people will at most only superficially adopt the tribal notions that most of us know are often amazing silly. So for very good reason many voters are tiring of the angry tribalism we have all been force-fed. Instead many are themselves more forcefully requesting policies that finally rise above the old dividing lines marked by socioeconomic self-interest. It is not by chance this development coincides with today’s higher living standards (despite the media pessimism) and that today’s generations are the first to afford to think less selfishly. Also, AI makes it possible to focus more on facts which Mark is convinced will help boost a more general approach similar to that of Factulness author Hans Rosling who famously argued “you can not turn to [negativistic] newsmedia if you want to understand the world”.

So it is far from written in stone that the gospel of negativity will dominate forever. In fact, we are benefitting massively, to paraphrase Sir Isaac Newton, from standing on the shoulders of giants. The incremental accumulation of ever more knowledge has directly led us to the data processing revolution that has already been going on for decades. There is good reason to think that this revolution, also going forward, will promote an increasingly more fact driven – and thereby an automatically more two-sided approach. Regardless of the stakeholder “luddites” who always claim, following each and every technology leap, that the world will fall apart if democratisation of the information sharing benefits are not stopped (the resistance will of course be phrased differently, most typically by playing the cannot-end-up-in-the-wrong-hands card). Fortunately the luddites of society have never succeeded in halting progress more than temporarily. It is worth remembering that with every technology leap, during the certainly still ongoing industrial revolution, public discourse has in the end turned out more rather than less open and more rather than less inclusive.

Mark Brolin is the possibly only Geopolitical Strategist on the market who openly acknowledges that no truly objective geopolitical analysis is possible unless first acknowledging the much underestimated negativity bias that so strongly flavours public discourse. Of course just about everyone claims to do so yet are often using sources and facts in a way that typically validates rather than rises above tribal groupthink (negative by nature). In no way does this mean that Mark thinks everything is peachy, or that it is possible to return to political stability and healthy economic growth without a reset. Meaning without backtracking from the many policies of excess increasingly – and unknowingly – offered during recent years. It does however mean that he is convinced that today’s gloomy general sentiment is way over the top. So whereas many others in the geopolitical field focus primarily on highlighting and mitigating risks (downsides), Mark stands out by focusing just as much opportunities (upsides). Mark finds the public discourse negativity bias highly dated, like a blast from the past, in the sense that it is no longer necessary. Given the today wonderfully diverse amounts of knowledge and data banks readily available for everyone not stuck in the kind of tribal doom loop mentioned above.

Given a more modern and authentically two-sided (less negative) approach Mark is convinced no major challenge exists that human inventiveness cannot successfully tackle. He has had the opportunity to work with business leaders, policy specialists, research institutes and think tanks across three continents. He is moreover a regular contributor to a number of media outlets across the globe. Well-known employers include OMX (Nasdaq), Cantor Fitzgerald and the Swedish Foreign Ministry. His corporate development background – for years he was de facto responsible for distinguishing corporate substance from corporate fluff – no doubt helps to explain his uniquely hands-on approach. Including a proactive noise cancelling approach: “Sounds good, sure, but does it work on the field of practical reality or are you just reiterating what is in vogue in your tribe while serving stakeholder self-interest? If so, what is a better way?” Mark was born in Sweden; most of his professional life he has been headquartered in London.

Mark’s latest book project, Healing Broken Democracies: All you need to know about Populism, was a joint thought leader project including also Daron Acemoglu, David Goodhart, Matthew Goodwin, Jonathan Haidt, Eric Kaufmann and Luigi Zingales. A key argument Mark is making in the book is that we should look at the 2020s in much the same way as many other transition period decades (for example the 1920s and the 1980s). Meaning as a decade marked changes which have had little to do with any individual and just about everything to do with massive technological shifts. The latter have in turn triggered massive commercial and socioeconomic shifts. Such transition period decades are moreover always distinguished by smoke, dust, intellectual confusion – and, yes, tribalism – until a new voter group equilibrium has been established. On top of that they are distinguished by much more predictable – and favourable – outcomes than we will think if obsessing about short term negativity instead of looking at the big picture. A book extract including a chapter involving social psychologist Jonathan Haidt, a chapter that directly tackles the analytically fascinating tribal phenomenon, published also by Politico.

When delivering speeches Mark is typically quick to point out that there is plenty of much underestimated good faith going round and that none of the key conspiracy theories bear scrutiny. Take the “deplorables” to use a notorious term courtesy of their opponents. These particularly disillusioned voters, often operating on the fringes of society and leaning towards the parties of discontent, are not secretly plotting grassroots revolution. How can we tell? How could they be when busy trying to make ends meet and when, by definition almost, one of their key problems is the lack of widespread insider support – and respect – within the corridors of power? Now take the “Davos crowd”, almost per definition those who are truly influential within the corridors just mentioned. How can we tell they are not secretly plotting how to pull the strings of society from the top? One of several key reasons is that this is another group not even close to as organised as their opponents will claim in order to stir up a sense of immediate danger. How could they be when typically completely immersed in dealing with the next company takeover, how to defend the latest quarterly report at the next board meeting, how to come across during the next big press event, how to win the attention of someone yet further up the social ladder or how to fend off all those in turn tugging at their sleeves? Sure, within each tribe there is lots of mutual backscratching, this is even a key reason the tribal instincts remain so strong. It is certainly unfortunate when tribalism develops from helping those close to home into a tediously negative us-vs-them mindset. Not only will the latter guarantee intolerance it will also cloud the professional analysis since a tribal outlook can only be held together following massive amounts of cherrypicking with facts. Nonetheless, all the talk about secret cabals plotting world takeover is, on both sides of the political fence, wildly exaggerated.

The silver lining of today’s (unnecessary) intellectual confusion, as Mark sees it, is that there are presently amazing opportunities for those who, ahead of key decisions, proactively rise above limiting negativity groupthink. Mark Brolin has again and again emphasised that if doing so, proactively, Captains of Industry, Investors and Political leaders can swiftly move way ahead of their rivals. Since, the by far superior way to maximise stakeholder value (for voters, shareholders, consumers). It is also the one and only way to truly benefit society and thereby authentically fulfil the wonderful ESG-ambition. Mark would love to hear from those who share his mindset of post tribal optimism – and want to know more about how to navigate today’s geopolitically intriguing terrain.

Talks about: #Geopolitics, #Geoeconomics, #ThePoliticalCycle, #TheBusinessCycle, #TransitionPeriods (including trends rarely talked about elsewhere), #TheUK, #TheEU, #Sweden, #TheNordics, #Corporatism, How and why the new land of opportunity, #India, is in real time shapeshifting the geopolitical landscape more than presently any other country on the planet – including China and Russia, How and why #Poland is presently shapeshifting the European geopolitical landscape. How and why the #TheUSA always seems to be misunderstood and underestimated. How to rise as an organisation – and individual – by also rising above #tribal groupthink. How to truly ensure that the #ESG-ambition transforms into a force for good rather than merely yet another (tribal) PR-initiative.

EARLY INSPIRATION

As both a book worm and practitioner Mark has been inspired by countless authors, biographers, historians, philosophers and captains of industry. Meaning by all kinds of switched on thought leaders and entrepreneurs – both alive and long gone. Still, Mark’s earliest and most special professional inspiration was his dad, Swedish TV commentator and presenter Åke Brolin. The latter always stayed true to the facts while also combining a strong natural presence with a completely relaxed style. Yet he would never even consider trying to outshine any of the many fascinating people he met and interviewed. Mark does get he might be just a little bit biased on this one but consider it his prerogative.

Pictures from top to bottom: 1) Frank Sinatra 2) Boxing heavyweight champion Ingemar Johansson 3) Swimmer Gunnar Larsson and diver Ulrika Knape sitting down during an afterparty following both of them winning gold at the 1972 Munich Olympics 4) Björn Borg 5) Sean Connery 6) Pic from the 1970s when relaxing on the job really could mean relaxing on the job 7) Salad Days with great friend Christer Hansson 8) One meeting was particularly important to Mark’s dad – and somewhat significant also to Mark: his meeting with Mark’s beautiful mum.